- Historic precedent suggests an NFC Super Bowl victory is healthier for the inventory market than an AFC win.
- That’s much more essential this yr as the San Francisco 49ers (NFC) face off in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (AFC).
- After a risky week on Wall Avenue, some NFL enjoyable is simply what the physician ordered.
Stock market bulls had higher get on their knees and pray that the soccer gods ship the San Francisco 49ers a Super Bowl victory in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs tomorrow night time.
That’s proper – the most entertaining inventory market forecast of the yr is again. Historic information nonetheless counsel that shares do higher when an NFC staff wins the Super Bowl than when the AFC staff does.
However the plot thickens this yr. The 49ers’ Super Bowl victories have correlated with robust years for the inventory market, whereas the Chiefs are certainly one of solely a handful of groups whose championships may portend a nasty yr for the S&P 500.
Stock Market Bulls Again the 49ers; Bears Go Lengthy on the Chiefs
Proving which you could overlay financial information throughout nearly any occasion, LPL Monetary Analysis offered some splendidly in-depth evaluation of the Super Bowl’s obvious affect on the inventory market.
An NFC winner has produced a optimistic yr 79% of the time, whereas the S&P 500 has been up solely 64% of the time when the winner got here from the AFC.
However Super Bowl LIV is unusually excessive stakes for butterfly impact theorists. There’s a large hole between how the S&P 500 carried out in years when the 49ers (NFC) and Chiefs (AFC) gained NFL titles.
The Chiefs have only won one Super Bowl – Super Bowl IV in 1970. The S&P 500 ended that year in decline.
The 49ers’ five victories, meanwhile, have been followed by an average S&P 500 gain of 19.2%.
LPL Financial’s senior economist Ryan Detrick comments:
We’ve seen some impressive market returns the years the 49ers made it to the big game. In fact, the S&P 500 has averaged nearly 21% in the six years they made it to the final game, and 19% in the five years they won.
Obviously, these stats are all in good fun. Don’t expect to see Warren Buffett taking any new positions based on this data set.
S&P 500 Erased Its 2020 Gains This Week
Careening to a torrid close to the week, the S&P 500 erased its yearly gains with a 1.7% loss as coronavirus fears hit a complacent stock market and the U.S. declared a public health emergency [hhs.gov].
This appeared to be triggered by a sizeable bounce in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, as the global counts surpassed 12,000 and 250, respectively [Johns Hopkins].
Investors are now nervously awaiting the open of the Chinese stock market on Monday, with a sizeable gap lower anticipated after the extension to the Lunar New Year celebration.
Stock Market Could Do With Some 49ers Super Bowl Magic
With all this doom and gloom, what a perfect time for the San Francisco 49ers to work some of their stock market magic and pump the S&P 500 back to life with a Super Bowl victory.
Unfortunately, they will have to get past Patrick “Mr. Perfect” Mahomes, whose Kansas City Chiefs want your 401(k) to flatline for the rest of the year.
Given this research, maybe it’s time to start vetting the referees based on their speculation in financial markets.
Too many penalties against Kansas City, and you’d better believe the official is loaded up on a very different kind of “call.”
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article do not represent investment or trading advice from CCN.com
This article was edited by Josiah Wilmoth.
Last modified: February 1, 2020 4:39 PM UTC