Bitcoin Failed As a Safe-Haven During COVID-19 Pandemic Because Of Market Manipulation: Research


The College of Sussex lately printed a paper relating to the efficiency of Bitcoin and gold through the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis staff behind the undertaking believes that each belongings did not function safe-havens, primarily due to important market manipulations.

Bitcoin And Gold Failed In The 2020 Disaster?

The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this yr prompted quite a few disturbances in on a regular basis life and in monetary markets. March alone was among the many worst buying and selling months, with belongings dropping substantial parts of their values.

Wall Road needed to set off buying and selling curbs (circuit breakers) on a number of events to stop additional declines. Bitcoin, being a free-market asset and missing such regulatory devices, had no help and misplaced as much as 50% of its value at one level.

The devastating results didn’t omit gold – the asset historically considered a protected haven. The value of the dear steel plunged from about $1,700 to $1,450 in days.

XAUUSD 1h. Source: TradingView
XAUUSD 1h. Supply: TradingView

In response to the paper from the general public analysis college, these occasions have rattled the notion of Bitcoin and even gold to function as safe-havens throughout instances of uncertainty. The college’s analysis staff blamed it on “intense and large-scale manipulations.”

“As the S&P 500 crashed in March 2020, gold had its worst week in eight years when it ought to have been its greatest, due to large shorts on COMEX gold futures.

Bitcoin has additionally been pushed down by some fairly apparent manipulation bots on the unregulated crypto derivatives exchanges, particularly BitMEX.” – mentioned Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance on the College of Sussex Enterprise College.

Correlation Between Monetary Markets

By diving, all examined belongings elevated its correlation with one another, the paper defined. During March and April this yr, the correlation stage between the S&P 500 and gold was plus 20%. Opposite, through the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, the identical comparability indicated minus 40%.

The analysis additionally famous that since its inception in January 2009, Bitcoin’s conduct “was utterly uncorrelated with any conventional belongings.” During essentially the most intense days of the COVID-19 value drops, nevertheless, their correlation grew to plus 63%, and it stays now at about 40%.

It’s value noting that whereas most belongings have displayed comparable restoration makes an attempt for the reason that March lows, the explanations behind these may differentiate considerably.

As an example, the favored S&P 500 index lately surged above three,000 foundation factors, which is close to the ATH from February 2020. Nonetheless, the US Federal Reserve printed trillions-of-dollars to battle the results of the pandemic, and a great amount went into the markets. Therefore, the pump of Wall Road appears synthetic to some extent.

The first cryptocurrency, then again, has no central financial institution or authority behind it. Bitcoin started its March descend at $9,100 and bottomed at beneath $four,000. Nonetheless, BTC has recovered totally since then and is at the moment buying and selling at about $9,500.

BTCUSD 1h. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD 1h. Supply: TradingView

Curiously, gold has additionally surged to new highs since its yearly backside of $1,450 and is at the moment buying and selling at about $1,720.

US Belongings Emerge Victorious?

The report outlines that “the largest beneficiaries of those market assaults” are holders of US dollars and US belongings.

“These change into the primary sources of optimistic returns for world traders in makes an attempt to curtail the latest development of some central banks to diversify their reserve away from the US greenback.” – reads the paper.

The demand for the greenback has elevated currently, as some consider that “US monetary markets are the important thing to weathering tough financial headwinds.”

Within the long-term, although, the results may shortly flip round. Distinguished US economist Peter Schiff lately famous that printing such in depth quantities of cash may depreciate the USD’s worth. Extra alarmingly, he warned that these countermeasures could lead on even to hyperinflation.

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